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The Year ’23 gives you what YOU believe admin January 3, 2023

The Year ’23 gives you what YOU believe

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The Year '23- You get what you believe!

Dear friends,

If we take a look back to 2022, we realise we have sailed through and weathered the rough tide and come out relatively unscathed.

While the world was fighting its way back to normalcy post Covid, it saw the new trauma of Russia-Ukrain war that still continues, resultant sanctions, supply chain disruptions, Oil price volatility, highest inflation the Western world has seen, Fed rate hikes and strengthening of USD against INR by whopping 15%.

To check inflation, RBI took many measures including enhancing Repo rates from 4% to 6.25% in the last 9 months, a steep hike of 56.25%. New restrictions due to sustainability and environment issues tightened their grip on us. Both have had a huge impact on MSMEs in India.

As we enter ‘23, we see the promising signs of tapering inflation and falling commodity prices, including Oil, which have lend some respite for what had been a difficult year for the world economies. 

But the economists’ outlook for 2023 isn’t very encouraging. Most believe that one third of the global economy may slip into a recession this year. 

So we need to keep our seatbelts fastened.

I believe that the worst is perhaps over for Repo Rates increase. I am also confident that our domestic demand shall insulate us from recession the major world economies may see.

Few points are worrisome. Exports, which, are likely to face a challenging year ahead. Import Bills, which, inspite of cooling off of commodity prices, have increased due to USD-INR exchange rates hike from 73 to 83.

The recent news of resurgence of Covid across China, Japan and some other countries is, of course, a cause of concern.

Stock Markets through are likely to react to any upturn or downturn through the turbulence ahead and, therefore, expected to be very volatile in the year '23. Longterm and SIP investors should be patient and I suggest, stay invested.

For India, I am sure that all major sectors including travel, tourism, entertainment, automotive, Pharma, health, education, e-commerce, real estate, Defense, infrastructure shall continue to do well this year. However, Sustainability issues and New environment laws shall only strengthen and businesses need to change accordingly.

The Year ‘23 shall almost carry the momentum of 2021 & 2022 growth. 

I am an incorrigible optimist and see that in the long term, the best for India has only just begun. As we face and sail through the trying times in ‘23 & ‘24,  we should see much better economic performance and growth ahead as the Russia-Ukraine war should end some time in future and the big economies revive after the impeding recession.

So my message is, make the best out of the present opportunities, remain upbeat and hopeful. The mind shall matter the most. We shall get what we’ll believe in. So fine tune your thoughts, plans and actions.

I wish you a Very Happy and Progressive Year ‘23.

- Rajive Chawla

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